Fonte: The Economist
"IT IS not exactly news that the world's economic centre of gravity is
shifting east. But it is striking how fast this seems to be
happening. In a new study
on the economic impact of urbanisation the McKinsey Global Institute,
the research arm of the eponymous consultancy, has attempted to
calculate how this centre of gravity has moved since AD 1 and how it is
likely to move until 2025. Although the underlying maths (which involves
weighting the approximate centre of landmass of a country by its GDP)
has to be taken with a pinch of salt, the calculations show that the
centre is rapidly shifting east—at a speed of 140 kilometres a year and
thus faster than ever before in human history, according to Richard
Dobbs, one of the authors of the study. The main reason for this is
rapid urbanisation in developing countries, in particular China. As
people are moving into cities many are becoming richer, driving further
economic growth. Most of this growth will not occur in much-hyped
megacities, such as Mumbai or Shanghai, but in what the authors call
"middleweight cities". Few in the rich world would be able to identify
these on a map. Ever heard of Foshan or Surat, for instance? (Hint: the
former is China's 7th-largest city, the latter India's capital for
synthetic textiles.)"
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